V-Lab
S&P GSCI Petroleum Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
53.47%
decreased by 1.41%
1 Week
53.00%
decreased by 1.88%
1 Month
51.47%
decreased by 3.41%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 81% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0511 | 17.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9006 | 290.62*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0416 | 12.55*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0204 | 9.75*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0359 | 11.64*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9596 | 269.70*** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
25 days
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