S&P GSCI Petroleum Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
32.67%
decreased by 1.17%
1 Week
32.88%
decreased by 0.96%
1 Month
33.70%
decreased by 0.14%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 81% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 81% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 126 | |
| αARCH | 0.0511 | 4.29*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9006 | 82.68*** |
| γleverage | 0.0414 | 3.00*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0206 | 0.93 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0358 | 1.43 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9596 | 32.59*** |
0.972
Persistence25d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0511 | 4.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9006 | 82.68*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0414 | 3.00*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0206 | 0.93 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0358 | 1.43 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9596 | 32.59*** |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
25 days
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