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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Petroleum Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026

1 Day

37.03%

decreased by 1.26%

1 Week

37.14%

decreased by 1.15%

1 Month

37.33%

decreased by 0.96%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Petroleum Spot Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 81% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0514
4.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9001
82.29***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0415
3.00***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0206
0.93
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0355
1.42
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9599
32.66***

Persistence:

0.972

Half-life:

25 days