S&P GSCI Petroleum Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
43.80%
decreased by 1.80%
1 Week
43.66%
decreased by 1.94%
1 Month
43.23%
decreased by 2.37%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 82% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0512 | 17.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9002 | 287.51*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0417 | 12.42*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0206 | 9.66*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0355 | 11.48*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9598 | 267.65*** |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
25 days
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