V-Lab
S&P GSCI Petroleum Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
37.03%
decreased by 1.26%
1 Week
37.14%
decreased by 1.15%
1 Month
37.33%
decreased by 0.96%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 81% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0514 | 4.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9001 | 82.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0415 | 3.00*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0206 | 0.93 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0355 | 1.42 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9599 | 32.66*** |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
25 days
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