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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Petroleum Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

45.60%

decreased by 1.88%

1 Week

45.39%

decreased by 2.09%

1 Month

44.71%

decreased by 2.77%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Petroleum Spot Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 82% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0512
17.66***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9002
287.51***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0417
12.42***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0206
9.66***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0355
11.48***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9598
267.65***

Persistence:

0.972

Half-life:

25 days