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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Petroleum Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

36.00%

decreased by 1.23%

1 Week

36.12%

decreased by 1.11%

1 Month

36.50%

decreased by 0.73%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Petroleum Spot Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 81% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 81% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow126
αARCH0.0511
4.29***
βGARCH0.9005
82.65***
γleverage0.0414
3.01***
λ₁tau intercept0.0206
0.93
λ₂forecast adj.0.0358
1.43
λ₃tau persistence0.9595
32.59***

0.972

Persistence

25d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0511
4.29***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9005
82.65***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0414
3.01***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0206
0.93
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0358
1.43
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9595
32.59***

Persistence:

0.972

Half-life:

25 days