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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Petroleum Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

53.47%

decreased by 1.41%

1 Week

53.00%

decreased by 1.88%

1 Month

51.47%

decreased by 3.41%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Petroleum Spot Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 81% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0511
17.93***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9006
290.62***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0416
12.55***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0204
9.75***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0359
11.64***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9596
269.70***

Persistence:

0.973

Half-life:

25 days