S&P GSCI Petroleum Spot Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
29.94%
decreased by 1.10%
1 Week
30.08%
decreased by 0.96%
1 Month
30.58%
decreased by 0.46%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 11:02 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 69 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~69 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0517 | 6.33*** |
| αARCH | 0.0751 | 8.25*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9150 | 106.32*** |
0.990
Persistence69d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0517 | 6.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0751 | 8.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9150 | 106.32*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
69 days
Other S&P GSCI Petroleum Spot Index Analyses
Other GARCH Analyses on Commodities