V-Lab
ICE US Cotton No. 2 GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
29.39%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Week
29.42%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Month
29.53%
decreased by 0.18%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 04:06 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 82 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~82 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0323 | 4.03*** |
| αARCH | 0.0455 | 7.56*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9461 | 144.49*** |
0.992
Persistence82d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0323 | 4.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0455 | 7.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9461 | 144.49*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
82 days
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