V-Lab
S&P GSCI Biofuel Spot Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 17th, 2026
1 Day
18.31%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Week
18.33%
decreased by 0.54%
1 Month
18.39%
decreased by 0.48%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 17, 2026 at 04:49 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 1995 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 38 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 38 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 38-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0256 | 5.68*** |
| αARCH | 0.0616 | 11.04*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9202 | 141.40*** |
0.982
Persistence38d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0256 | 5.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0616 | 11.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9202 | 141.40*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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