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S&P GSCI Biofuel Spot Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

18.69%

decreased by 0.56%

1 Week

18.72%

decreased by 0.53%

1 Month

18.80%

decreased by 0.45%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 11:02 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Biofuel Spot Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 1995 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 48 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 48 days. The volatility power δ = 1.53 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 48-day half-lifeδ = 1.53 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0195
4.27***
αARCH0.0625
10.23***
βGARCH0.9315
114.51***
γleverage-0.0229
-0.52
δpower1.5328
6.83***

0.986

Persistence

48d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0195
4.27***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0625
10.23***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9315
114.51***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0229
-0.52
δ

power

Transformation power

1.5328
6.83***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

48 days