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S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

34.03%

increased by 0.68%

1 Week

34.21%

increased by 0.86%

1 Month

34.89%

increased by 1.54%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 11:02 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.64 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 52% more than positive returns

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~74 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 52% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0476
5.11***
αARCH0.0874
8.85***
βGARCH0.9123
100.88***
γleverage0.1269
1.98**
δpower1.6370
9.53***

0.991

Persistence

74d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0476
5.11***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0874
8.85***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9123
100.88***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1269
1.98**
δ

power

Transformation power

1.6370
9.53***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

74 days