S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
32.99%
increased by 0.78%
1 Week
32.89%
increased by 0.68%
1 Month
32.55%
increased by 0.34%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:52 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 36 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9020 | 4.49*** |
| αARCH | 0.0831 | 8.49*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8978 | 89.15*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0294 | 2.31** |
| γ2 | -0.0526 | -2.89*** |
| γ3 | 0.0295 | 2.39** |
| γ4 | 0.0070 | 0.56 |
| γ5 | -0.0442 | -1.94* |
0.981
Persistence36d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9020 | 4.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0831 | 8.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8978 | 89.15*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0294 | 2.31** |
| γ2 | -0.0526 | -2.89*** |
| γ3 | 0.0295 | 2.39** |
| γ4 | 0.0070 | 0.56 |
| γ5 | -0.0442 | -1.94* |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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