S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
37.02%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Week
37.25%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
38.13%
increased by 0.86%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:51 PM UTC
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How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 10, 2010 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 99 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
AMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~99 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0725 | 5.30*** |
| αARCH | 0.1666 | 5.29*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7929 | 46.81*** |
| γleverage | 0.0670 | 1.58 |
0.993
Persistence99d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0725 | 5.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1666 | 5.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7929 | 46.81*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0670 | 1.58 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
99 days
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