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S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

37.02%

decreased by 0.25%

1 Week

37.25%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Month

38.13%

increased by 0.86%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:51 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 10, 2010 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 99 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~99 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0725
5.30***
αARCH0.1666
5.29***
βGARCH0.7929
46.81***
γleverage0.0670
1.58

0.993

Persistence

99d

Half-life
μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0725
5.30***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1666
5.29***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7929
46.81***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0670
1.58

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

99 days