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S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

39.46%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Week

39.71%

increased by 0.23%

1 Month

40.67%

increased by 1.19%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:51 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index MEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 10, 2010 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 132 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

MEM Model

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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~132 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0719
1.74*
αARCH0.2084
10.06***
βGARCH0.7863
50.41***

0.995

Persistence

132d

Half-life
μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0719
1.74*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2084
10.06***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7863
50.41***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

132 days