S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
39.46%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Week
39.71%
increased by 0.23%
1 Month
40.67%
increased by 1.19%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:51 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 10, 2010 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 132 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
MEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~132 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0719 | 1.74* |
| αARCH | 0.2084 | 10.06*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7863 | 50.41*** |
0.995
Persistence132d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0719 | 1.74* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2084 | 10.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7863 | 50.41*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
132 days
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