ICE Brent Crude Oil Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
41.67%
decreased by 2.17%
1 Week
41.48%
decreased by 2.36%
1 Month
40.80%
decreased by 3.04%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 04:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 30, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 38 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2521 | 6.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0923 | 6.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8896 | 57.33*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0210 | 2.89*** |
| γ2 | -0.0368 | -2.35** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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