V-Lab
Henry Hub Natural Gas Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
44.79%
increased by 1.70%
1 Week
46.46%
increased by 3.37%
1 Month
52.13%
increased by 9.04%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 55 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.6684 | 5.96*** |
| αARCH | 0.0837 | 9.72*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9037 | 103.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0054 | 3.83*** |
0.987
Persistence55d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6684 | 5.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0837 | 9.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9037 | 103.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0054 | 3.83*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
55 days
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