V-Lab
Henry Hub Natural Gas GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
38.40%
decreased by 1.20%
1 Week
39.12%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Month
41.81%
increased by 2.21%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 04:13 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 169 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1352 | 19.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0871 | 40.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9088 | 521.12*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
169 days
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