V-Lab
Henry Hub Natural Gas GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
34.95%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Week
35.77%
increased by 0.34%
1 Month
38.77%
increased by 3.34%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:06 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 169 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1344 | 4.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0869 | 10.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9090 | 130.59*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
169 days
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