V-Lab
S&P GSCI Softs Spot Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
22.33%
increased by 0.05%
1 Week
22.27%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
22.07%
decreased by 0.21%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:54 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 17, 1995 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 55-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0196 | 4.12*** |
| αARCH | 0.0437 | 7.31*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9439 | 124.44*** |
0.988
Persistence55d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0196 | 4.12*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0437 | 7.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9439 | 124.44*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
55 days
Other S&P GSCI Softs Spot Index Analyses
Other GARCH Analyses on Commodities