Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P GSCI Softs Spot Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

22.33%

increased by 0.05%

1 Week

22.27%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Month

22.07%

decreased by 0.21%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:54 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Softs Spot Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 17, 1995 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 55-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0196
4.12***
αARCH0.0437
7.31***
βGARCH0.9439
124.44***

0.988

Persistence

55d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0196
4.12***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0437
7.31***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9439
124.44***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

55 days