V-Lab
NY Harbor ULSD Heating Oil GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
49.29%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Week
49.19%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Month
48.83%
decreased by 0.55%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 04:07 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 4, 2000 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 73 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~73 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0726 | 5.03*** |
| αARCH | 0.0928 | 7.66*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8977 | 80.23*** |
0.990
Persistence73d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0726 | 5.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0928 | 7.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8977 | 80.23*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
73 days
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