V-Lab
S&P GSCI Lead Spot Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026
1 Day
13.05%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Week
13.16%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
13.56%
increased by 0.37%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 12:54 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1995 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 306 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~306 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0069 | 2.84*** |
| αARCH | 0.0308 | 7.84*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9670 | 231.72*** |
0.998
Persistence306d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0069 | 2.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0308 | 7.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9670 | 231.72*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
306 days
Other S&P GSCI Lead Spot Index Analyses
Other GARCH Analyses on Commodities