NYMEX Palladium GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 27th, 2026
1 Day
32.11%
decreased by 1.40%
1 Week
32.81%
decreased by 0.70%
1 Month
34.87%
increased by 1.36%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 27, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 28, 1998 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 17 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 17 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 17-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2594 | 2.95*** |
| αARCH | 0.0997 | 4.95*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8597 | 41.97*** |
0.959
Persistence17d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2594 | 2.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0997 | 4.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8597 | 41.97*** |
Persistence:
0.959
Half-life:
17 days
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