LME/COMEX Aluminum GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 27th, 2026
1 Day
21.68%
increased by 0.04%
1 Week
21.59%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
21.28%
decreased by 0.36%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 27, 2026 at 12:04 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 6, 2014 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 20 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 20 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 20-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0542 | 0.96 |
| αARCH | 0.0759 | 5.92*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8906 | 24.17*** |
0.967
Persistence20d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0542 | 0.96 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0759 | 5.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8906 | 24.17*** |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
20 days
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