LME/COMEX Aluminum GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
19.95%
increased by 0.12%
1 Week
19.96%
increased by 0.13%
1 Month
20.01%
increased by 0.18%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 08:04 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 6, 2014 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 20 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 20 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 20-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0542 | 0.96 |
| αARCH | 0.0761 | 5.92*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8903 | 24.14*** |
0.966
Persistence20d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0542 | 0.96 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0761 | 5.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8903 | 24.14*** |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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