V-Lab
LME/COMEX Aluminum GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
23.49%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Week
23.38%
decreased by 0.55%
1 Month
22.99%
decreased by 0.94%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 6, 2014 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0218 | 3.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0533 | 4.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9539 | 233.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0434 | -3.49*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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