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LME/COMEX Aluminum GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

21.58%

decreased by 0.34%

1 Week

21.52%

decreased by 0.40%

1 Month

21.31%

decreased by 0.61%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 04:02 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of LME/COMEX Aluminum GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 6, 2014 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 49 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 49 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 49-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0210
0.76
αARCH0.0510
1.20
βGARCH0.9560
65.89***
γleverage-0.0420
-0.88

0.986

Persistence

49d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0210
0.76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0510
1.20
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9560
65.89***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0420
-0.88

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

49 days