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LME/COMEX Aluminum GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

22.34%

decreased by 0.34%

1 Week

22.26%

decreased by 0.42%

1 Month

21.97%

decreased by 0.71%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 04:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of LME/COMEX Aluminum GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 6, 2014 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 48 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 48 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 48-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0213
0.76
αARCH0.0518
1.20
βGARCH0.9550
62.25***
γleverage-0.0423
-0.87

0.986

Persistence

48d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0213
0.76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0518
1.20
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9550
62.25***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0423
-0.87

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

48 days