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V-Lab

LME/COMEX Aluminum GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

23.49%

decreased by 0.44%

1 Week

23.38%

decreased by 0.55%

1 Month

22.99%

decreased by 0.94%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of LME/COMEX Aluminum GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 6, 2014 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0218
3.02***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0533
4.80***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9539
233.39***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0434
-3.49***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

47 days