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LME/COMEX Aluminum GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

19.85%

decreased by 0.09%

1 Week

19.84%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Month

19.79%

decreased by 0.15%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:03 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of LME/COMEX Aluminum GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 6, 2014 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 48 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 48 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 48-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0212
0.76
αARCH0.0515
1.20
βGARCH0.9553
64.07***
γleverage-0.0423
-0.88

0.986

Persistence

48d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0212
0.76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0515
1.20
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9553
64.07***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0423
-0.88

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

48 days