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V-Lab

LME/COMEX Aluminum GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

28.62%

decreased by 0.43%

1 Week

28.39%

decreased by 0.66%

1 Month

27.55%

decreased by 1.50%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 07:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of LME/COMEX Aluminum GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 6, 2014 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 338% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0227
2.97***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0541
4.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9518
211.46***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0417
-3.21***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

46 days