LME/COMEX Aluminum GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
28.62%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Week
28.39%
decreased by 0.66%
1 Month
27.55%
decreased by 1.50%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 07:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 6, 2014 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 338% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0227 | 2.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0541 | 4.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9518 | 211.46*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0417 | -3.21*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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