V-Lab
LME/COMEX Aluminum GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 28th, 2026
1 Day
26.60%
decreased by 0.47%
1 Week
26.44%
decreased by 0.63%
1 Month
25.81%
decreased by 1.26%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 11:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 6, 2014 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0209 | 3.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0513 | 4.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9559 | 253.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0420 | -3.50*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
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