LME/COMEX Aluminum GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
19.85%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Week
19.84%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Month
19.79%
decreased by 0.15%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:03 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 6, 2014 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 48 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 48 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 48-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0212 | 0.76 |
| αARCH | 0.0515 | 1.20 |
| βGARCH | 0.9553 | 64.07*** |
| γleverage | -0.0423 | -0.88 |
0.986
Persistence48d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0212 | 0.76 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0515 | 1.20 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9553 | 64.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0423 | -0.88 |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
48 days
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