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V-Lab

LME/COMEX Aluminum GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

13.44%

decreased by 4.93%

1 Week

13.42%

decreased by 4.95%

1 Month

13.37%

decreased by 5.00%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of LME/COMEX Aluminum GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 6, 2014 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.93 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3370
43.54***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
1,370.37***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.9327
10.18***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days