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V-Lab

LME/COMEX Aluminum GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

15.50%

decreased by 5.32%

1 Week

15.48%

decreased by 5.34%

1 Month

15.42%

decreased by 5.40%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of LME/COMEX Aluminum GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 6, 2014 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.93 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3366
43.53***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
1,370.37***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.9320
10.18***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days