LME/COMEX Aluminum GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
15.50%
decreased by 5.32%
1 Week
15.48%
decreased by 5.34%
1 Month
15.42%
decreased by 5.40%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 6, 2014 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.93 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3366 | 43.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 1,370.37*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.9320 | 10.18*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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