LME/COMEX Aluminum GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
22.41%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Week
22.36%
decreased by 0.53%
1 Month
22.18%
decreased by 0.71%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 04:03 AM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 6, 2014 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 65 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 65 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.39 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 65-day half-lifev = 8.39 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 1.5918 | 2.74*** |
| αscore | 0.0413 | 5.67*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9894 | 187.92*** |
| νDF | 8.3915 | 0.83 |
0.989
Persistence65d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 1.5918 | 2.74*** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0413 | 5.67*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9894 | 187.92*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.3915 | 0.83 |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
65 days
Other LME/COMEX Aluminum Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Commodities