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LME/COMEX Aluminum GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

22.41%

decreased by 0.48%

1 Week

22.36%

decreased by 0.53%

1 Month

22.18%

decreased by 0.71%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 04:03 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of LME/COMEX Aluminum GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 6, 2014 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 65 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 65 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.39 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 65-day half-lifev = 8.39 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run1.5918
2.74***
αscore0.0413
5.67***
βpersistence0.9894
187.92***
νDF8.3915
0.83

0.989

Persistence

65d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

1.5918
2.74***
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0413
5.67***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9894
187.92***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.3915
0.83

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

65 days