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V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P GSCI Gold Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

21.40%

increased by 1.96%

1 Week

21.39%

increased by 1.95%

1 Month

21.37%

increased by 1.93%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Gold Spot Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 353 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.51 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~353 daysv = 4.51 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run1.5493
1.61
αscore0.0409
18.04***
βpersistence0.9980
919.85***
νDF4.5119
9.02***

0.998

Persistence

353d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

1.5493
1.61
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0409
18.04***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9980
919.85***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.5119
9.02***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

353 days