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V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P GSCI Gold Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026

1 Day

21.52%

increased by 0.19%

1 Week

21.51%

increased by 0.18%

1 Month

21.49%

increased by 0.16%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/07/2024

to

10/07/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Gold Spot Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 388 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.10 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~388 daysv = 4.10 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.5917
1.77*
αARCH0.0392
19.21***
βGARCH0.9982
1,116.57***
νDF4.1027
13.21***

0.998

Persistence

388d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5917
1.77*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0392
19.21***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9982
1,116.57***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.1027
13.21***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

388 days