S&P GSCI Gold Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
29.34%
increased by 0.20%
1 Week
29.31%
increased by 0.17%
1 Month
29.20%
increased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 393 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.09 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6144 | 7.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0394 | 76.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9982 | 4,600.17*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.0940 | 53.59*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
393 days
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