S&P GSCI Gold Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
27.60%
decreased by 1.01%
1 Week
27.58%
decreased by 1.03%
1 Month
27.49%
decreased by 1.12%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 394 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.10 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6159 | 7.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0394 | 76.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9982 | 4,642.99*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.0979 | 53.57*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
394 days
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Commodities