S&P GSCI Gold Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
21.40%
1 Week
21.39%
1 Month
21.37%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 353 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.51 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 1.5493 | 1.61 |
| αscore | 0.0409 | 18.04*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9980 | 919.85*** |
| νDF | 4.5119 | 9.02*** |
0.998
Persistence353d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 1.5493 | 1.61 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0409 | 18.04*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9980 | 919.85*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.5119 | 9.02*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
353 days
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