S&P GSCI Gold Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
21.52%
1 Week
21.51%
1 Month
21.49%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 388 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.10 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.5917 | 1.77* |
| αARCH | 0.0392 | 19.21*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9982 | 1,116.57*** |
| νDF | 4.1027 | 13.21*** |
0.998
Persistence388d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5917 | 1.77* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0392 | 19.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9982 | 1,116.57*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.1027 | 13.21*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
388 days
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