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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Gold Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

24.12%

decreased by 0.60%

1 Week

24.11%

decreased by 0.61%

1 Month

24.05%

decreased by 0.67%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Gold Spot Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 391 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~391 daysv = 4.11 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.5977
1.77*
αARCH0.0392
19.20***
βGARCH0.9982
1,131.78***
νDF4.1072
13.23***

0.998

Persistence

391d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5977
1.77*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0392
19.20***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9982
1,131.78***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.1072
13.23***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

391 days