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V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P GSCI Cocoa Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026

1 Day

51.29%

decreased by 0.47%

1 Week

51.21%

decreased by 0.55%

1 Month

50.93%

decreased by 0.83%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/07/2024

to

10/07/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Cocoa Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 275 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.03 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~275 daysv = 7.03 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst4.5272
1.37
αARCH0.0302
11.55***
βGARCH0.9975
620.71***
νDF7.0340
1.79*

0.997

Persistence

275d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.5272
1.37
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0302
11.55***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9975
620.71***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.0340
1.79*

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

275 days