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V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P GSCI Cocoa Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

42.44%

decreased by 0.98%

1 Week

42.40%

decreased by 1.02%

1 Month

42.24%

decreased by 1.18%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Cocoa Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 263 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.36 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~263 daysv = 8.36 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run4.5591
1.44
αscore0.0322
11.17***
βpersistence0.9974
619.10***
νDF8.3551
1.28

0.997

Persistence

263d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

4.5591
1.44
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0322
11.17***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9974
619.10***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.3551
1.28

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

263 days