S&P GSCI Cocoa Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
72.38%
increased by 4.02%
1 Week
72.25%
increased by 3.89%
1 Month
71.74%
increased by 3.38%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 299 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.07 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.7111 | 5.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0303 | 46.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9977 | 2,891.84*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.0679 | 7.51*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
299 days
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