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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Cocoa Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

57.11%

increased by 2.70%

1 Week

57.00%

increased by 2.59%

1 Month

56.55%

increased by 2.14%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:02 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Cocoa Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 231 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~231 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0132
2.62***
αARCH0.0405
4.87***
βGARCH0.9643
204.08***
γleverage-0.0157
-1.44

0.997

Persistence

231d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0132
2.62***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0405
4.87***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9643
204.08***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0157
-1.44

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

231 days