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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Cocoa Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

69.19%

decreased by 1.09%

1 Week

69.04%

decreased by 1.24%

1 Month

68.43%

decreased by 1.85%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Cocoa Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 239 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 64% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0130
10.29***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0408
19.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9643
815.14***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0160
-5.80***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

239 days