S&P GSCI Cocoa Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
41.19%
decreased by 0.73%
1 Week
41.14%
decreased by 0.78%
1 Month
40.93%
decreased by 0.99%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 205 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~205 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0143 | 2.79*** |
| αARCH | 0.0413 | 4.91*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9633 | 201.73*** |
| γleverage | -0.0160 | -1.45 |
0.997
Persistence205d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0143 | 2.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0413 | 4.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9633 | 201.73*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0160 | -1.45 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
205 days
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