V-Lab
S&P GSCI Cocoa Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
69.19%
decreased by 1.09%
1 Week
69.04%
decreased by 1.24%
1 Month
68.43%
decreased by 1.85%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 239 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 64% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0130 | 10.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0408 | 19.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9643 | 815.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0160 | -5.80*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
239 days
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