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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Cocoa Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

74.77%

increased by 2.40%

1 Week

74.60%

increased by 2.23%

1 Month

73.94%

increased by 1.57%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Cocoa Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 244 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 65% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0129
10.20***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0410
19.38***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9643
815.79***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0161
-5.81***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

244 days