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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Cocoa Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026

1 Day

50.81%

decreased by 0.63%

1 Week

50.72%

decreased by 0.72%

1 Month

50.36%

decreased by 1.08%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/07/2024

to

10/07/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Cocoa Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 222 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~222 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0135
2.67***
αARCH0.0407
4.88***
βGARCH0.9640
203.13***
γleverage-0.0157
-1.44

0.997

Persistence

222d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0135
2.67***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0407
4.88***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9640
203.13***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0157
-1.44

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

222 days