S&P GSCI Cocoa Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
50.81%
decreased by 0.63%
1 Week
50.72%
decreased by 0.72%
1 Month
50.36%
decreased by 1.08%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 222 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~222 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0135 | 2.67*** |
| αARCH | 0.0407 | 4.88*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9640 | 203.13*** |
| γleverage | -0.0157 | -1.44 |
0.997
Persistence222d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0135 | 2.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0407 | 4.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9640 | 203.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0157 | -1.44 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
222 days
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