S&P GSCI Cocoa Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
74.77%
increased by 2.40%
1 Week
74.60%
increased by 2.23%
1 Month
73.94%
increased by 1.57%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 244 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 65% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0129 | 10.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0410 | 19.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9643 | 815.79*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0161 | -5.81*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
244 days
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