S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
44.98%
decreased by 1.94%
1 Week
44.73%
decreased by 2.19%
1 Month
43.84%
decreased by 3.08%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 1999 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 74% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0771 | 20.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0577 | 13.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9059 | 304.10*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0426 | 5.96*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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