S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
28.95%
increased by 0.39%
1 Week
29.18%
increased by 0.62%
1 Month
30.00%
increased by 1.44%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 1999 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 47 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 47 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 47-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0750 | 5.06*** |
| αARCH | 0.0571 | 3.38*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9073 | 77.52*** |
| γleverage | 0.0422 | 1.51 |
0.985
Persistence47d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0750 | 5.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0571 | 3.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9073 | 77.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0422 | 1.51 |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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