S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
43.87%
decreased by 1.81%
1 Week
43.66%
decreased by 2.02%
1 Month
42.92%
decreased by 2.76%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 11:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 1999 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 75% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0752 | 20.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0572 | 13.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9070 | 307.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0426 | 6.02*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
Other S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Commodities