Skip to main content
V-Lab

S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026

1 Day

38.57%

decreased by 1.60%

1 Week

38.50%

decreased by 1.67%

1 Month

38.25%

decreased by 1.92%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 8, 1999 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 47 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 47 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0759
5.06***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0577
3.39***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9064
76.87***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0424
1.50

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

47 days