S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
33.11%
decreased by 1.01%
1 Week
33.21%
decreased by 0.91%
1 Month
33.53%
decreased by 0.59%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 1999 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 48 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 48 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 48-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0749 | 5.05*** |
| αARCH | 0.0573 | 3.39*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9072 | 77.55*** |
| γleverage | 0.0420 | 1.49 |
0.986
Persistence48d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0749 | 5.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0573 | 3.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9072 | 77.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0420 | 1.49 |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
48 days
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