V-Lab
S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
57.81%
decreased by 0.82%
1 Week
57.32%
decreased by 1.31%
1 Month
55.49%
decreased by 3.14%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 1999 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 73% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0745 | 20.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0576 | 13.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9071 | 309.90*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0423 | 6.00*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
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