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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

57.81%

decreased by 0.82%

1 Week

57.32%

decreased by 1.31%

1 Month

55.49%

decreased by 3.14%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 8, 1999 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 73% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0745
20.09***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0576
13.57***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9071
309.90***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0423
6.00***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

49 days