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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

43.87%

decreased by 1.81%

1 Week

43.66%

decreased by 2.02%

1 Month

42.92%

decreased by 2.76%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 11:08 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 8, 1999 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 75% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0752
20.11***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0572
13.38***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9070
307.97***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0426
6.02***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

47 days