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S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

36.11%

decreased by 1.38%

1 Week

36.11%

decreased by 1.38%

1 Month

36.12%

decreased by 1.37%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:02 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 8, 1999 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 48 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 48 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 48-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0750
5.05***
αARCH0.0574
3.39***
βGARCH0.9071
77.42***
γleverage0.0421
1.49

0.986

Persistence

48d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0750
5.05***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0574
3.39***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9071
77.42***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0421
1.49

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

48 days