S&P GSCI Sugar Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
31.32%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Week
31.32%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Month
31.30%
decreased by 0.45%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 163 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~163 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0158 | 3.59*** |
| αARCH | 0.0295 | 3.98*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9668 | 231.96*** |
| γleverage | -0.0011 | -0.10 |
0.996
Persistence163d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0158 | 3.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0295 | 3.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9668 | 231.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0011 | -0.10 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
163 days
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