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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Petroleum Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

45.54%

decreased by 1.91%

1 Week

45.36%

decreased by 2.09%

1 Month

44.70%

decreased by 2.75%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Petroleum Spot Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 44% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0517
24.06***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0613
15.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9151
419.19***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0269
4.41***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

68 days