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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Petroleum Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026

1 Day

36.66%

decreased by 1.40%

1 Week

36.64%

decreased by 1.42%

1 Month

36.58%

decreased by 1.48%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Petroleum Spot Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 68 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 68 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0516
6.02***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0614
3.97***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9151
105.09***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0268
1.10

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

68 days