V-Lab
S&P GSCI Petroleum Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
54.10%
decreased by 1.19%
1 Week
53.80%
decreased by 1.49%
1 Month
52.69%
decreased by 2.60%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 44% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0508 | 23.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0612 | 15.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9156 | 423.49*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0268 | 4.42*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
70 days
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