S&P GSCI Petroleum Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
28.51%
increased by 0.42%
1 Week
28.68%
increased by 0.59%
1 Month
29.28%
increased by 1.19%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 68 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 68 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 68-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0514 | 6.03*** |
| αARCH | 0.0611 | 3.97*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9154 | 105.53*** |
| γleverage | 0.0268 | 1.11 |
0.990
Persistence68d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0514 | 6.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0611 | 3.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9154 | 105.53*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0268 | 1.11 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
68 days
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