S&P GSCI Petroleum Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
45.54%
decreased by 1.91%
1 Week
45.36%
decreased by 2.09%
1 Month
44.70%
decreased by 2.75%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 44% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0517 | 24.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0613 | 15.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9151 | 419.19*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0269 | 4.41*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
68 days
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