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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Petroleum Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

54.10%

decreased by 1.19%

1 Week

53.80%

decreased by 1.49%

1 Month

52.69%

decreased by 2.60%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Petroleum Spot Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 44% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0508
23.90***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0612
15.88***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9156
423.49***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0268
4.42***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

70 days