V-Lab
S&P GSCI Petroleum Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
36.66%
decreased by 1.40%
1 Week
36.64%
decreased by 1.42%
1 Month
36.58%
decreased by 1.48%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 68 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 68 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0516 | 6.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0614 | 3.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9151 | 105.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0268 | 1.10 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
68 days
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