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V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P GSCI Precious Metals Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

23.52%

decreased by 0.32%

1 Week

23.53%

decreased by 0.31%

1 Month

23.57%

decreased by 0.27%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Precious Metals Spot Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 661 trading days (~2.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 138% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~661 daysInverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 138% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0034
2.63***
αARCH0.0542
4.18***
βGARCH0.9605
122.71***
γleverage-0.0315
-2.16**

0.999

Persistence

661d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0034
2.63***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0542
4.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9605
122.71***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0315
-2.16**

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

661 days