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{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

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Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
ωconst	0.0034	2.62***
αARCH	0.0542	4.19***
βGARCH	0.9605	123.03***
γleverage	-0.0315	-2.17**

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
ω const Unconditional variance weight	0.0034	2.62***
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.0542	4.19***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.9605	123.03***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	-0.0315	-2.17**

V-Lab

S&P GSCI Precious Metals Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Volatility Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other S&P GSCI Precious Metals Spot Index Analyses