V-Lab
S&P GSCI Nickel Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
20.52%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Week
20.86%
increased by 0.03%
1 Month
22.08%
increased by 1.25%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 1993 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 48% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0449 | 17.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0561 | 14.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9430 | 425.33*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0183 | -3.84*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
68 days
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