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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Nickel Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

22.18%

increased by 1.05%

1 Week

22.47%

increased by 1.34%

1 Month

23.52%

increased by 2.39%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Nickel Spot Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 8, 1993 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 48% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0462
17.46***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0562
14.13***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9425
420.95***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0181
-3.77***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

67 days