S&P GSCI Nickel Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
22.18%
increased by 1.05%
1 Week
22.47%
increased by 1.34%
1 Month
23.52%
increased by 2.39%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 1993 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 48% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0462 | 17.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0562 | 14.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9425 | 420.95*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0181 | -3.77*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
67 days
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