S&P GSCI Nickel Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
20.16%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Week
20.50%
increased by 0.09%
1 Month
21.73%
increased by 1.32%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 1993 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~71 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0436 | 4.32*** |
| αARCH | 0.0558 | 3.57*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9435 | 107.69*** |
| γleverage | -0.0182 | -0.97 |
0.990
Persistence71d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0436 | 4.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0558 | 3.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9435 | 107.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0182 | -0.97 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
71 days
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