V-Lab
S&P GSCI Nickel Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
21.03%
increased by 0.75%
1 Week
21.36%
increased by 1.08%
1 Month
22.53%
increased by 2.25%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 1993 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 48% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0453 | 17.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0562 | 14.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9428 | 423.92*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0182 | -3.82*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
68 days
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