V-Lab
S&P GSCI Nickel Spot Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
15.06%
increased by 0.24%
1 Week
15.08%
increased by 0.26%
1 Month
15.13%
increased by 0.31%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:56 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 1993 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6972 | 7.62*** |
| αARCH | 0.0658 | 5.28*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8899 | 49.86*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.0002 | -0.02 |
| γ2 | -0.0020 | -0.14 |
| γ3 | -0.0124 | -1.21 |
| γ4 | 0.0375 | 3.45*** |
| γ5 | -0.0706 | -4.64*** |
0.956
Persistence15d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6972 | 7.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0658 | 5.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8899 | 49.86*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.0002 | -0.02 |
| γ2 | -0.0020 | -0.14 |
| γ3 | -0.0124 | -1.21 |
| γ4 | 0.0375 | 3.45*** |
| γ5 | -0.0706 | -4.64*** |
Persistence:
0.956
Half-life:
15 days
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