V-Lab
S&P GSCI All Cattle Spot Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
16.96%
increased by 0.82%
1 Week
16.95%
increased by 0.81%
1 Month
16.93%
increased by 0.79%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 11:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2002 to Sep 8, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 66 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0911 | 8.99*** |
| αARCH | 0.0459 | 7.98*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9436 | 145.23*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0014 | 1.15 |
0.990
Persistence66d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0911 | 8.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0459 | 7.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9436 | 145.23*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0014 | 1.15 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
66 days
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