V-Lab
S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
37.41%
decreased by 1.24%
1 Week
37.60%
decreased by 1.05%
1 Month
38.28%
decreased by 0.37%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 11:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 1999 to Sep 8, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 39 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3116 | 9.10*** |
| αARCH | 0.0793 | 6.88*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9029 | 72.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0028 | 3.07*** |
0.982
Persistence39d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3116 | 9.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0793 | 6.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9029 | 72.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0028 | 3.07*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
39 days
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