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V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P GSCI Biofuel Spot Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

17.67%

decreased by 0.20%

1 Week

17.60%

decreased by 0.27%

1 Month

17.34%

decreased by 0.53%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 11:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Biofuel Spot Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 1995 to Sep 8, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 32 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7675
8.85***
αARCH0.0591
9.44***
βGARCH0.9192
121.10***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0017
-2.46**

0.978

Persistence

32d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7675
8.85***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0591
9.44***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9192
121.10***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0017
-2.46**

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

32 days