V-Lab
S&P GSCI Biofuel Spot Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
17.67%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Week
17.60%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Month
17.34%
decreased by 0.53%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 11:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 1995 to Sep 8, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 32 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7675 | 8.85*** |
| αARCH | 0.0591 | 9.44*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9192 | 121.10*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0017 | -2.46** |
0.978
Persistence32d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7675 | 8.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0591 | 9.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9192 | 121.10*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0017 | -2.46** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
32 days
Other S&P GSCI Biofuel Spot Index Analyses
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on Commodities