S&P GSCI Biofuel Spot Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
17.17%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Week
17.11%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Month
16.93%
decreased by 0.49%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:53 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 1995 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 32 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7684 | 8.88*** |
| αARCH | 0.0590 | 9.46*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9193 | 121.51*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0017 | -2.44** |
0.978
Persistence32d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7684 | 8.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0590 | 9.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9193 | 121.51*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0017 | -2.44** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
32 days
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