V-Lab
S&P GSCI Cocoa Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
62.19%
increased by 0.39%
1 Week
62.25%
increased by 0.45%
1 Month
62.47%
increased by 0.67%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 11:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 8, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 120 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~120 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1645 | 7.37*** |
| αARCH | 0.0324 | 7.15*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9619 | 177.24*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.0097 | 2.53** |
| γ2 | -0.0208 | -3.06*** |
| γ3 | 0.0349 | 3.86*** |
0.994
Persistence120d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1645 | 7.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0324 | 7.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9619 | 177.24*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.0097 | 2.53** |
| γ2 | -0.0208 | -3.06*** |
| γ3 | 0.0349 | 3.86*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
120 days
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