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S&P GSCI Cocoa Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

51.98%

decreased by 0.88%

1 Week

51.88%

decreased by 0.98%

1 Month

51.50%

decreased by 1.36%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC

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graph of S&P GSCI Cocoa Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 228 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~228 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0764
8.00***
αARCH0.0320
7.34***
βGARCH0.9649
201.36***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0001
0.38

0.997

Persistence

228d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0764
8.00***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0320
7.34***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9649
201.36***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0001
0.38

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

228 days