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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Cocoa Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026

1 Day

43.42%

increased by 0.92%

1 Week

43.35%

increased by 0.85%

1 Month

43.09%

increased by 0.59%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 12:09 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/11/2024

to

11/11/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Cocoa Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 209 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~209 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0698
8.06***
αARCH0.0326
7.42***
βGARCH0.9641
200.36***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0001
0.45

0.997

Persistence

209d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0698
8.06***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0326
7.42***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9641
200.36***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0001
0.45

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

209 days