Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P GSCI Cocoa Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

57.98%

increased by 0.46%

1 Week

57.86%

increased by 0.34%

1 Month

57.40%

decreased by 0.12%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 11:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Cocoa Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 8, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 232 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~232 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0795
7.98***
αARCH0.0320
7.34***
βGARCH0.9650
201.76***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0001
0.36

0.997

Persistence

232d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0795
7.98***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0320
7.34***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9650
201.76***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0001
0.36

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

232 days