V-Lab
S&P GSCI Cocoa Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
57.98%
increased by 0.46%
1 Week
57.86%
increased by 0.34%
1 Month
57.40%
decreased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 11:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 8, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 232 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~232 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0795 | 7.98*** |
| αARCH | 0.0320 | 7.34*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9650 | 201.76*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0001 | 0.36 |
0.997
Persistence232d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0795 | 7.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0320 | 7.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9650 | 201.76*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0001 | 0.36 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
232 days
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