S&P GSCI Cocoa Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026
1 Day
43.42%
increased by 0.92%
1 Week
43.35%
increased by 0.85%
1 Month
43.09%
increased by 0.59%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 12:09 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 209 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~209 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0698 | 8.06*** |
| αARCH | 0.0326 | 7.42*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9641 | 200.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0001 | 0.45 |
0.997
Persistence209d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0698 | 8.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0326 | 7.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9641 | 200.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0001 | 0.45 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
209 days
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