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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Spot Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

19.98%

decreased by 0.45%

1 Week

20.13%

decreased by 0.30%

1 Month

20.64%

increased by 0.21%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC

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graph of S&P GSCI Spot Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 41 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7552
5.18***
αARCH0.0707
7.56***
βGARCH0.9124
92.21***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ10.0202
2.87***
γ2-0.0401
-4.08***
γ30.0307
5.05***
γ4-0.0140
-3.14***

0.983

Persistence

41d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7552
5.18***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0707
7.56***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9124
92.21***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ10.0202
2.87***
γ2-0.0401
-4.08***
γ30.0307
5.05***
γ4-0.0140
-3.14***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days