ICE US Orange Juice Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
68.71%
decreased by 0.90%
1 Week
68.62%
decreased by 0.99%
1 Month
68.26%
decreased by 1.35%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 2001 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 300 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~300 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0253 | 3.45*** |
| αARCH | 0.0254 | 6.04*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9723 | 197.47*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0004 | -0.63 |
0.998
Persistence300d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0253 | 3.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0254 | 6.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9723 | 197.47*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0004 | -0.63 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
300 days
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