V-Lab
ICE US Orange Juice Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
73.76%
decreased by 0.96%
1 Week
73.66%
decreased by 1.06%
1 Month
73.23%
decreased by 1.49%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 01:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 2001 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 297 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0329 | 3.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0257 | 6.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9720 | 194.71*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0004 | -0.65 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
297 days
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