ICE US Orange Juice Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
62.83%
increased by 2.14%
1 Week
62.75%
increased by 2.06%
1 Month
62.43%
increased by 1.74%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 01:04 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 2001 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 277 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~277 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0123 | 3.54*** |
| αARCH | 0.0256 | 6.03*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9719 | 194.27*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0004 | -0.62 |
0.998
Persistence277d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0123 | 3.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0256 | 6.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9719 | 194.27*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0004 | -0.62 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
277 days
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