V-Lab
ICE US Orange Juice Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
65.39%
decreased by 0.37%
1 Week
65.29%
decreased by 0.47%
1 Month
64.92%
decreased by 0.84%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 2001 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 264 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0111 | 3.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0259 | 6.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9715 | 190.63*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0004 | -0.63 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
264 days
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