V-Lab
ICE US Orange Juice Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
74.56%
decreased by 1.00%
1 Week
74.45%
decreased by 1.11%
1 Month
74.04%
decreased by 1.52%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 04:10 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 2001 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 314 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~314 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0352 | 3.40*** |
| αARCH | 0.0253 | 6.05*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9724 | 198.90*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0004 | -0.64 |
0.998
Persistence314d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0352 | 3.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0253 | 6.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9724 | 198.90*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0004 | -0.64 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
314 days
Other ICE US Orange Juice Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Commodities