Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

ICE US Orange Juice Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

74.56%

decreased by 1.00%

1 Week

74.45%

decreased by 1.11%

1 Month

74.04%

decreased by 1.52%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 04:10 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE US Orange Juice S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 17, 2001 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 314 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~314 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0352
3.40***
αARCH0.0253
6.05***
βGARCH0.9724
198.90***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0004
-0.64

0.998

Persistence

314d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0352
3.40***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0253
6.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9724
198.90***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0004
-0.64

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

314 days