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V-Lab

ICE US Orange Juice Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026

1 Day

65.39%

decreased by 0.37%

1 Week

65.29%

decreased by 0.47%

1 Month

64.92%

decreased by 0.84%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:20 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE US Orange Juice S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 17, 2001 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 264 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0111
3.60***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0259
6.02***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9715
190.63***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0004
-0.63

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

264 days