Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

ICE US Orange Juice Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026

1 Day

62.83%

increased by 2.14%

1 Week

62.75%

increased by 2.06%

1 Month

62.43%

increased by 1.74%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 01:04 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/29/2024

to

10/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE US Orange Juice S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 17, 2001 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 277 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~277 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0123
3.54***
αARCH0.0256
6.03***
βGARCH0.9719
194.27***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0004
-0.62

0.998

Persistence

277d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0123
3.54***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0256
6.03***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9719
194.27***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0004
-0.62

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

277 days