V-Lab
ICE US Orange Juice Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
69.81%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Week
69.71%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Month
69.32%
decreased by 0.67%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 01:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 2001 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 288 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~288 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0232 | 3.49*** |
| αARCH | 0.0256 | 6.03*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9720 | 194.87*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0004 | -0.63 |
0.998
Persistence288d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0232 | 3.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0256 | 6.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9720 | 194.87*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0004 | -0.63 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
288 days
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