V-Lab
ICE US Orange Juice GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
69.75%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Week
69.63%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Month
69.18%
decreased by 0.83%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 05:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 2001 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 279 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0162 | 9.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0253 | 24.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9722 | 799.52*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
279 days
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