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V-Lab

ICE US Orange Juice GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

69.75%

decreased by 0.26%

1 Week

69.63%

decreased by 0.38%

1 Month

69.18%

decreased by 0.83%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 05:14 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of ICE US Orange Juice GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 17, 2001 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 279 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0162
9.76***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0253
24.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9722
799.52***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

279 days