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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

41.71%

decreased by 1.38%

1 Week

42.05%

decreased by 1.04%

1 Month

43.29%

increased by 0.20%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 1994 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1243
23.54***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0760
44.21***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9142
526.93***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

70 days