S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
50.27%
decreased by 2.33%
1 Week
49.94%
decreased by 2.66%
1 Month
48.73%
decreased by 3.87%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 1999 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0736 | 21.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0798 | 27.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9063 | 306.39*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
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