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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

50.27%

decreased by 2.33%

1 Week

49.94%

decreased by 2.66%

1 Month

48.73%

decreased by 3.87%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 8, 1999 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0736
21.02***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0798
27.70***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9063
306.39***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

50 days