S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
32.83%
increased by 2.80%
1 Week
32.94%
increased by 2.91%
1 Month
33.33%
increased by 3.30%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:51 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 1999 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 51 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 51 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 51-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0726 | 5.26*** |
| αARCH | 0.0793 | 6.96*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9070 | 77.63*** |
0.986
Persistence51d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0726 | 5.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0793 | 6.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9070 | 77.63*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
51 days
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