COMEX Gold GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
22.98%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
22.88%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Month
22.50%
decreased by 0.49%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 05:15 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0148 | 13.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0432 | 16.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9453 | 321.32*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
60 days
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