V-Lab
S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
25.83%
decreased by 0.86%
1 Week
25.92%
decreased by 0.77%
1 Month
26.25%
decreased by 0.44%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1995 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~70 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0353 | 5.24*** |
| αARCH | 0.0681 | 7.70*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9221 | 103.61*** |
0.990
Persistence70d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0353 | 5.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0681 | 7.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9221 | 103.61*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
70 days
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