V-Lab
S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
38.70%
increased by 1.62%
1 Week
38.21%
increased by 1.13%
1 Month
36.90%
decreased by 0.18%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1995 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 77% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0526 | 15.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8758 | 103.58*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0406 | 8.36*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0168 | 5.36*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0284 | 3.87*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9662 | 115.69*** |
Persistence:
0.949
Half-life:
13 days
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