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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Light Energy Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026

1 Day

12.49%

decreased by 0.35%

1 Week

12.68%

decreased by 0.16%

1 Month

13.22%

increased by 0.38%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Light Energy Spot Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026
Stationarity Enforced

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0552
4.70***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8637
39.37***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0204
1.50
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0025
1.99**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0486
4.00***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9485
73.53***

Persistence:

0.929

Half-life:

9 days