Skip to main content
V-Lab

S&P GSCI Light Energy Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

14.68%

increased by 4.74%

1 Week

26.22%

increased by 16.28%

1 Month

285.69%

increased by 275.75%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Light Energy Spot Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.7068
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0432
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5000
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0810
11.31***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.9423
36.25***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-