V-Lab
S&P GSCI Light Energy Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
11.84%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Week
12.08%
increased by 0.05%
1 Month
12.56%
increased by 0.53%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Stationarity Enforced
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 46 | |
| αARCH | 0.0551 | 4.70*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8642 | 39.56*** |
| γleverage | 0.0204 | 1.50 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0025 | 1.99** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0485 | 3.98*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9487 | 73.33*** |
0.929
Persistence9d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0551 | 4.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8642 | 39.56*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0204 | 1.50 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0025 | 1.99** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0485 | 3.98*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9487 | 73.33*** |
Persistence:
0.929
Half-life:
9 days
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