V-Lab
S&P GSCI Light Energy Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
12.49%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Week
12.68%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Month
13.22%
increased by 0.38%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026Stationarity Enforced
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0552 | 4.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8637 | 39.37*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0204 | 1.50 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0025 | 1.99** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0486 | 4.00*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9485 | 73.53*** |
Persistence:
0.929
Half-life:
9 days
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