S&P GSCI Light Energy Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, May 18th, 2026
1 Day
14.33%
decreased by 7.57%
1 Week
15.98%
decreased by 5.92%
1 Month
18.53%
decreased by 3.37%
Analysis last updated: Friday, May 15, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 111 | ||
| 0.7500 | 7,499,900.00 | |
| 0.0000 | 100.00 | |
| 0.5000 | 5,000,000.00 | |
| 4.9259 | 17.18 | |
| 0.5100 | 17.35 | |
| 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Estimation Period:
Jan 2, 1990 to May 15, 2026
Jan 2, 1990 to May 15, 2026
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