S&P GSCI All Cattle Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
15.46%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Week
15.51%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Month
15.80%
increased by 0.19%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2002 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 51 | |
| αARCH | 0.0013 | 0.16 |
| βGARCH | 0.9093 | 68.12*** |
| γleverage | 0.0749 | 6.95*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0140 | 1.60 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0624 | 2.15** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9225 | 24.70*** |
0.948
Persistence13d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 51 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0013 | 0.16 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9093 | 68.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0749 | 6.95*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0140 | 1.60 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0624 | 2.15** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9225 | 24.70*** |
Persistence:
0.948
Half-life:
13 days
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