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V-Lab

S&P GSCI All Cattle Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026

1 Day

15.46%

decreased by 0.15%

1 Week

15.51%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Month

15.80%

increased by 0.19%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/07/2024

to

10/07/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI All Cattle Spot Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2002 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow51
αARCH0.0013
0.16
βGARCH0.9093
68.12***
γleverage0.0749
6.95***
λ₁tau intercept0.0140
1.60
λ₂forecast adj.0.0624
2.15**
λ₃tau persistence0.9225
24.70***

0.948

Persistence

13d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

51
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0013
0.16
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9093
68.12***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0749
6.95***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0140
1.60
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0624
2.15**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9225
24.70***

Persistence:

0.948

Half-life:

13 days