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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Nickel Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

19.96%

decreased by 0.63%

1 Week

21.05%

increased by 0.46%

1 Month

22.25%

increased by 1.66%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Nickel Spot Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 8, 1993 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

51
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1190
17.49***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6387
27.32***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0035
-0.44
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0793
1.32
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0959
1.47
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8864
11.31***

Persistence:

0.756

Half-life:

2 days