V-Lab
S&P GSCI Nickel Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
19.96%
decreased by 0.63%
1 Week
21.05%
increased by 0.46%
1 Month
22.25%
increased by 1.66%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 1993 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 51 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1190 | 17.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6387 | 27.32*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0035 | -0.44 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0793 | 1.32 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0959 | 1.47 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8864 | 11.31*** |
Persistence:
0.756
Half-life:
2 days
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