V-Lab
S&P GSCI Livestock Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
15.06%
decreased by 0.37%
1 Week
14.97%
decreased by 0.46%
1 Month
14.68%
decreased by 0.75%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Stationarity Enforced
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 264% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 264% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 86 | |
| αARCH | 0.0205 | 3.47*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9078 | 86.25*** |
| γleverage | 0.0540 | 6.60*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0034 | 1.53 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0187 | 2.28** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9771 | 94.17*** |
0.955
Persistence15d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 86 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0205 | 3.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9078 | 86.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0540 | 6.60*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0034 | 1.53 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0187 | 2.28** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9771 | 94.17*** |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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