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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Light Energy Spot Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026

1 Day

10.15%

increased by 0.01%

1 Week

10.21%

increased by 0.07%

1 Month

10.43%

increased by 0.29%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/07/2024

to

10/07/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Light Energy Spot Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 199 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~199 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0038
4.21***
αARCH0.0542
9.55***
βGARCH0.9423
167.34***

0.997

Persistence

199d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0038
4.21***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0542
9.55***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9423
167.34***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

199 days