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V-Lab

CME Lean Hogs GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

34.40%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Week

34.41%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Month

34.48%

increased by 0.06%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 04:09 AM UTC

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graph of CME Lean Hogs GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 15, 2000 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 227 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~227 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0167
2.05**
αARCH0.0029
1.74*
βGARCH0.9941
372.59***

0.997

Persistence

227d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0167
2.05**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0029
1.74*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9941
372.59***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

227 days