V-Lab
CME Lean Hogs GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026
1 Day
34.40%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Week
34.41%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
34.48%
increased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 04:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2000 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 227 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~227 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0167 | 2.05** |
| αARCH | 0.0029 | 1.74* |
| βGARCH | 0.9941 | 372.59*** |
0.997
Persistence227d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0167 | 2.05** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0029 | 1.74* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9941 | 372.59*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
227 days
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