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S&P GSCI All Cattle Spot Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

18.21%

decreased by 0.29%

1 Week

18.16%

decreased by 0.34%

1 Month

17.99%

decreased by 0.51%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 12:54 AM UTC

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graph of S&P GSCI All Cattle Spot Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2002 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 72 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~72 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0094
4.65***
αARCH0.0464
7.99***
βGARCH0.9440
146.65***

0.990

Persistence

72d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0094
4.65***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0464
7.99***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9440
146.65***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

72 days