V-Lab
S&P GSCI All Cattle Spot Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026
1 Day
18.21%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Week
18.16%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Month
17.99%
decreased by 0.51%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 12:54 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2002 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 72 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~72 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0094 | 4.65*** |
| αARCH | 0.0464 | 7.99*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9440 | 146.65*** |
0.990
Persistence72d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0094 | 4.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0464 | 7.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9440 | 146.65*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
72 days
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