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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Gold Spot Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

26.24%

decreased by 0.48%

1 Week

26.26%

decreased by 0.46%

1 Month

26.35%

decreased by 0.37%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Gold Spot Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0022
11.12***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0387
20.58***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9613
531.11***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-