S&P GSCI Gold Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, June 29th, 2026
1 Day
26.57%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Week
26.59%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Month
26.68%
decreased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, June 27, 2026 at 12:23 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0023 | 10.08 | |
| 0.0551 | 17.56 | |
| 0.9608 | 492.73 | |
| -0.0318 | -9.01 |
Estimation Period:
Jan 2, 1990 to Jun 26, 2026
Jan 2, 1990 to Jun 26, 2026
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