V-Lab
S&P GSCI Gold Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
22.64%
1 Week
22.67%
1 Month
22.77%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 137% more than negative returns
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0023 | 2.51** |
| αARCH | 0.0550 | 4.41*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9609 | 123.47*** |
| γleverage | -0.0318 | -2.27** |
1.000
Persistence1386294d
Half-lifeGJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0023 | 2.51** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0550 | 4.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9609 | 123.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0318 | -2.27** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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