V-Lab
S&P GSCI Gold Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
25.62%
1 Week
25.64%
1 Month
25.74%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 138% more than negative returns
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0024 | 10.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0553 | 17.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9608 | 491.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0320 | -9.09*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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