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S&P GSCI Gold Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

22.64%

decreased by 0.34%

1 Week

22.67%

decreased by 0.31%

1 Month

22.77%

decreased by 0.21%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:02 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Gold Spot Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 137% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1386294 daysInverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 137% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0023
2.51**
αARCH0.0550
4.41***
βGARCH0.9609
123.47***
γleverage-0.0318
-2.27**

1.000

Persistence

1386294d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0023
2.51**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0550
4.41***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9609
123.47***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0318
-2.27**

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days