S&P GSCI Gold Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
20.21%
1 Week
20.24%
1 Month
20.35%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 137% more than negative returns
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0023 | 2.51** |
| αARCH | 0.0550 | 4.41*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9609 | 123.75*** |
| γleverage | -0.0318 | -2.27** |
1.000
Persistence-
Half-lifeGJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0023 | 2.51** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0550 | 4.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9609 | 123.75*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0318 | -2.27** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
-
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