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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Gold Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

25.62%

decreased by 0.50%

1 Week

25.64%

decreased by 0.48%

1 Month

25.74%

decreased by 0.38%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Gold Spot Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 138% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0024
10.06***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0553
17.61***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9608
491.94***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0320
-9.09***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days